As our Congress weighs impeaching Donald Trump for an unprecedented second time, an inordinate amount of power and control lies squarely with Mitch McConnell. He’s already hinted that he is not entirely against impeaching Trump and severing ties with the figurehead of the Republican base. This is big news for someone who has been as fiercely loyal to Trump as McConnell has. For all of his faults, and I believe there are many, he seems to grasp one of the main issues of this crisis, which surprisingly has had little air time: the emergence of a new political party in the image of Trump.
You see, ever since Donald Trump wrestled control of the party in the lead up to the 2016 presidential election, most Republicans have been uncomfortable, to say the least. Plenty of research suggests that the true base of the Republican party, religious fiscal conservatives like my parents, has not changed, but it’s been massively compromised by the new extremist wing. It’s like a romantic relationship that’s starting to sour. There have been some great moments, some bonding, but no real connection. Certainly no shared roots. They’ve awkwardly danced around the inevitable because a breakup necessarily incurs a little loneliness and uncharted territory until (if?) you each find someone new. When we feel it coming, there are those of us happy to rip off the band-aid and move on, and those that want to cling together until the very end.
McConnell, once the leader of the clingy Republicans, finally appears to be willing to rip off the band-aid. And senators like Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley have tried to cling to Trump because, like the relationship analogy, they need his attention, his love, and they don’t have a plan for what to do without it. Or more accurately, what to do without his voting base.
It’s a dangerous game, because splitting the party from Trump will necessarily alienate the radicalized voting bloc that helped put many Republicans in power. If he succeeds in convincing his red colleagues to join him, McConnell would emerge as the undisputed leader of the new, recharged Republicans, and could move forward touting traditional Republican ‘values’ to win votes for the next round of elections. But he would need near unanimity to have any real chance of effectively repositioning the party post-Trump. Many in both parties have predicted this inevitability for years, but like some relationships, it’s often far more difficult to see from the inside. And Mitch McConnell apparently has, or is starting to.
But he should be scared, as there are no great options for a Republican these days. Donald Trump barely won in 2016 even with that base, and was trounced in 2020 with it. This is likely due as much to the shifting demographics of the country as it is to internal Republican strife.
Should Republicans lose that radicalized voting base, they could be wildly uncompetitive in general elections. But should they break cleanly and reorganize, they will at least give themselves a better chance.
It’s kind of like a Trust Fall. You need everyone to help catch the person falling. If one person declines or slips, you risk massive injury. Of course, when the thing falling is a bloated elephant, it’s understandably difficult to get anyone to agree to help.
This begs two important questions:
- What will happen to Trump’s base?
- What will the Democrats do about all of this?
Opportunity is knocking loudly on the doors of the Democratic Party, and Kamala Harris (its presumptive leader-in-waiting), to answer both questions. If the Democrats do nothing, and continue letting Republicans hurt themselves, they will still have a good chance of improving upon their victories in the 2020 general election. However, if, through careful messaging to attract and assuage the mostly white males concerned with losing power, Ms. Harris can stimulate the kind of change only previously achieved by the likes of Lincoln and FDR.
For at least the last decade, we have been barreling toward a national crisis far worse than this one. The country can obviously not stand the continued alienation of a segment of its population. And even if the fringe decreases in size, its methods for demanding attention will only get more extreme.
To be clear, there are elements so fringe and extreme that they are definitely NOT to be courted, and at no point should the needs and concerns of this group be more of a priority than the millions of diverse Americans already on board with working (and voting) to make America’s future great. However, considering their desperate plight, offering at least some hope for this group should be considered. And certainly if we are to achieve the status of the ‘city on a hill’, which so many Americans on both sides seem to desire.
Obama was unable to rise to the level of Lincoln or FDR because the hyper-partisanship was not yet at the breaking point. He certainly tried, and inspired a new generation in the process. But that partisanship seems to finally have reached its breaking point.
Now Mitch McConnell sees the writing on the wall and wants to be the one to end it, at least on the Republican side. He’s seemingly willing to break up to save himself and his party. Or at least he understands that this is no way to live and is finally ready to move on.
Of course, neither of those two scenarios is good for Republicans.
Which brings up the question of how can the Democrats use this to their advantage. Our soon-to-be-sitting Vice President, Kamala Harris, will have an historic opportunity over the next two years. How she, the Democratic Party, and the country at-large respond will likely chart a course for America’s future.
Can, or should, the Democrats attempt to court the potentially newly-liberated base, comprised of mostly middle-aged white males? If so, how? While the ‘how’ is an extremely delicate question, the answer to whether they should court them at all is a resounding ‘yes’.
I was raised a conservative, but saw the light in college. I was drawn to the general egalitarianism of the Democratic party, and the idea that they are working to lift all boats, and to raise the quality of life for all Americans, even those we don’t necessarily agree with on most issues. In that spirit, when Joe Biden says in his inauguration that he’s the President for ‘all Americans, not just the ones that voted for me’, he’s creating an opportunity for Kamala Harris to chart a path of further inclusion for all Americans, one comprised of three parties: The Democrats (the majority of Americans by Presidential vote in 7 of the last 8 elections), a weakened Republican Party, and the Trumpists (whether or not Trump is around, his base voters will be).
The clear trend in American demographics is towards diversity and inclusivity. But should those already on board with it leave behind and alienate those who are not? I strongly believe that would be a huge mistake and would beget further violence and desperation.
I believe that, as the country moves more liberal and Democratic, there will be some fracturing within that party too, perhaps between liberal and centrist ideals, but that’s at least an election cycle or two away. The time is now for Kamala Harris to unify her party, perhaps behind closed-doors at this point, in preparation for what comes next. If successful, it would be the kind of triumph that gets your picture on currency. I really hope she does it, because we desperately need it.
